Pakistan awaits Iran’s confirmation for US peace talks as ceasefire expires

Pakistan’s information minister announced the country is awaiting Iran’s confirmation to attend US peace talks in Islamabad. Odds for the ceasefire extension by April 21 sit at 19% YES, down from 69% a week ago.

Iran has not confirmed participation, and the current ceasefire expires tomorrow. That lack of commitment is pressuring the ceasefire extension market. The market on whether Trump will announce the ceasefire has been broken stands at 100% YES.

Trading volume hit $264,370 in the last 24 hours. The largest move was a 16-point drop at 2:54 PM, and it took just $2,773 to move the price 5 points, showing how thin the order book is. With the ceasefire expiring tomorrow, traders should expect sharp swings on small orders.

Iran’s refusal to formally confirm attendance suggests the diplomatic gap between the two sides has not narrowed. A YES share in the ceasefire extension market, currently priced at 19¢, would pay $1 if the ceasefire is extended, a 2.78x return. The market prices an extension as unlikely by tomorrow’s deadline.

Watch for statements from the Pakistani government or last-minute announcements from Iranian officials about their participation. The deadline is tomorrow, and any confirmed movement from either side could reprice the market quickly.

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