Wheat futures hit 2-year high as Iran war disrupts fertilizer supply

Wheat futures have reached their highest level since 2024 amid a fertilizer crisis tied to the Iran war. The Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 by April 2026 sits at 0% YES.

Market reaction

The Strait of Hormuz, a major route for global fertilizer exports, is effectively closed. Gulf urea production has dropped sharply as a result. The fertilizer supply squeeze is pushing wheat prices higher and hitting global food markets. The WTI Crude Oil market for April 2026 prices in no chance of reaching $160, with traders skeptical of extreme oil price spikes even with ongoing supply disruptions.

Why it matters

With only two days left on the April contract, traders are not buying the idea that current geopolitical tensions will push oil to $160. The crude oil price predictions for June 2023 could see movement as the effects of the Strait’s closure become clearer. No active trading is visible in these markets right now, suggesting traders are waiting for more information.

Wheat prices are surging, but oil markets are not following. The fertilizer shock stems from broader disruptions to Gulf shipping, yet traders aren’t betting on immediate oil price spikes. For contrarians, buying YES at near-zero cost in the April market offers a theoretical return, but the odds reflect near-certainty against dramatic oil moves in the next two days.

What to watch

New military actions or diplomatic developments between the U.S. and Iran could shift market expectations quickly. OPEC+ meetings or announcements would also affect oil price predictions.

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