US bombs Iranian nuclear sites, fate of uranium stockpile uncertain

The U.S. has bombed Iranian nuclear sites, leaving the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile uncertain. The likelihood of Iran surrendering its uranium by April 30 is now at 6.5% YES, a steep drop from 65% a week ago.

The market has seen activity but remains thin, with $10,723 in daily USDC volume. The April 30 sub-market is at 6.5% YES, while the June 30 sub-market sits at 28.5% YES. The biggest gap falls between those two dates, indicating traders expect major developments in that window. The December 31 market is at 41.5% YES, showing more confidence over a longer horizon.

Iranian regime stability is also in focus. Odds of regime fall by June 30 are at 7.5% YES, up slightly from 6% a week ago. This market trades $35,587 in daily USDC, significantly more liquid than the uranium surrender market, but the price movement is modest enough that traders aren’t pricing in imminent collapse.

For traders, this is a high-risk environment. At 6.5¢, a YES share on uranium surrender by April 30 pays $1 if resolved, a speculative 15.4x return. The current odds suggest entrenched positions rather than diplomacy, making a quick resolution unlikely. Watch for IAEA announcements or shifts in US-Iran diplomatic channels that could move these prices.

Statements from Ali Khamenei or IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi would be the most direct catalysts for price movement. U.S. military actions and Iranian responses are the other key variables.

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