Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery in Orenburg Oblast

Ukrainian drones struck the Orsknefteorgsintez oil refinery in Russia’s Orenburg Oblast. The odds for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 sit at 0.2% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.

The April 30 deadline is tomorrow, and traders see no path to resolution. The May 31 market sits at 6.2% YES, a slim chance for next month. The largest move was a 3-point spike earlier, suggesting some speculative trading.

Face value of trades over the past 24 hours is $453,729, but actual USDC exchanged was just $10,055. It takes $344 to move the April 30 market 5 points, meaning it’s thin and easily pushed around. The May 31 market requires $3,848 for the same shift — more depth, but still not much conviction behind it.

The drone strike is part of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to target Russian energy infrastructure, and active military operations like this make a near-term ceasefire harder to imagine. At 6.2¢, a YES share for May 31 pays $1 if it resolves, a 16.1x return. That bet requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough is plausible within a month.

Watch for statements from Zelenskyy or the Russian General Staff. Any hints at negotiations or further strikes will move odds. May 31 pricing is thin enough that small news could cause large swings.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.