Trump threatens airstrikes if US-Iran ceasefire deal not reached by April 21

Trump warned he will resume airstrikes if the US-Iran ceasefire doesn’t produce a deal by April 21. The ceasefire extension market sits at 75% YES, up from 70% a week ago.

With 5 days left, the threat has moved several related markets. The permanent peace deal market is at 30.5% YES, up slightly from 12% a week ago, showing persistent skepticism about a long-term resolution. Odds of Trump declaring the ceasefire over by April 21 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 30% a week ago.

The ceasefire extension market trades $89,960 in USDC daily, with a notable 8-point drop recorded at 6:06 PM. The peace deal market trades $267,520/day in USDC, with the largest move being a 4-point spike. The ceasefire end market is thin at $5,810/day, where just $1,700 can move it 5 points.

Trump’s statement reads more as bluster than policy shift. His threats have historically moved markets, but the real test is concrete action: resumed military strikes or formal diplomatic announcements. At 8¢, a YES share on ceasefire end would return a 12.5x payout if he follows through. Anyone buying that contract is betting diplomacy collapses within 5 days.

Watch for CENTCOM briefings or statements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry. Any confirmation of resumed strikes would reprice all three markets immediately.

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