Trump hints at end to Iran conflict amid record-high oil prices

President Trump announced that the war in Iran might conclude soon, following a US-Israeli attack that escalated tensions and drove oil prices to record highs. The odds of a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31 now sit at 7.5% YES.

The market for declaring war on Iran by April 30 is at 0.7% YES, showing little expectation of escalation within the next two weeks. Trump’s statement has prompted traders to reconsider the likelihood of a formal war declaration, with the December 31 market down slightly from 8% a week ago. The 7-point spread between the April 30 and December 31 markets suggests traders see possible catalysts for escalation later this year but are skeptical about immediate action.

The peace deal market tells a different story. Odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 rose to 23.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. The April 30 odds sit at 41.5% YES, driven by expectations of a negotiation breakthrough. The biggest movement was in the May 31 sub-market, now at 55.5% YES, up from 31% a week ago. Traders are pricing in a better-than-even chance of resolution within the next month and a half.

Volume in the peace deal market hit over $259K in USDC traded in the last 24 hours. The order book requires $16,317 to move the odds by five points, indicating institutional-level depth. The largest single move was a 4-point spike in the early morning, possibly from a large order or a strategic position shift by a single trader.

Trump’s statement points toward de-escalation, but the situation on the ground is complicated. Record-high oil prices from the conflict create global economic pressure that favors a diplomatic outcome. A YES share for a peace deal by June 30 is priced at 70.5¢, a risky position but one with real upside if peace materializes. Traders should watch for any signs of formal negotiation or a shift in military posture.

Watch for Trump’s upcoming statements and diplomatic moves from intermediaries like Pakistan. A change in rhetoric or a formal meeting announcement could move these markets quickly.

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