Trump has decided to extend the sanctions exemption on certain Russian oil shipments, but only for those already at sea. The WTI Crude Oil market for April 2026 is now pricing in a move toward $160, with odds rising on anticipated supply constraints.
The decision to end the temporary waiver on Russian oil comes amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.-Iran war. Traders are betting on higher oil prices as a result. The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April is expected to adjust significantly as supply pressures build. The April expiration is just 14 days away, and reaching $160 looks more plausible given active conflicts affecting two major oil-producing regions simultaneously.
Combined volume over the last 24 hours sits at zero, which means traders haven’t yet priced in this news. Ending the waiver signals that the administration is prioritizing economic pressure on Russia over stabilizing global oil supplies. Expect increased volatility in crude markets as traders adjust positions.
The market implies a 25% expected move as traders anticipate reduced oil supply. A YES share priced at 22¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a
Watch for statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman and Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Any announcements on OPEC+ production cuts or further supply disruptions could shift market expectations sharply.
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