Trump denied nuclear codes access during Pentagon meeting, claims ex-CIA analyst

Larry Johnson, a retired CIA analyst, claims Trump was stopped from accessing nuclear codes during an emergency Pentagon meeting. The U.S. invasion of Iran market now sits at 73% YES.

Johnson’s claim about General Dan Caine’s intervention has moved the U.S. invasion of Iran market. Invasion odds were previously higher, suggesting more certainty about military action. With 255 days until the year-end deadline, the claim introduces doubt about Trump’s immediate military intentions.

The U.S.-Iran permanent peace deal markets have barely moved. The April 22 sub-market is at 12.5% YES, down from 16% yesterday, while the June 30 market trades at 69.5% YES.

Peace deal markets saw $1.1M USDC in volume over the last 24 hours. The largest movement was a 4-point spike in the April 22 market at 4:27 PM. The order book requires $63K to move 5 points, indicating solid liquidity.

Johnson’s claim is unverified, but it shifts the narrative from imminent conflict to possible checks on executive power. At 73¢, a YES share on the invasion market pays $1 if it resolves, a 1.37x return. That return needs to be weighed against the military’s apparent reluctance to escalate.

Watch for official Pentagon statements or Trump public addresses that confirm or refute Johnson’s claims. Either would likely move these markets sharply.

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