The Chart Pattern That Ended the 2022 Bull Run Just Came Back

Stablecoin dominance printed a TBT bullish divergence at 54.29, mirroring the 2022 cycle top setup. Red May and June are looking very likely, per analyst MooninPapa.

BTC dropped 1.33% Tuesday. Took out Monday’s low. That part is not the story.

The story is what printed on the dominance charts while most traders were watching price.

According to MooninPapa on X, stablecoin dominance printed a TBT bullish divergence at 54.29, with the slow line still moving up. That exact setup marked major tops in 2022. The slow line hasn’t rolled over. It’s still climbing.

When the Exit Door Opens Quietly

TOTALES.D confirmed a TBT bearish divergence the same session, with the slow line pointing down. The total crypto market cap wicked the fast line on Tuesday. TOTAL50 and TOTAL100 are printing TBO close long clusters on the 4-hour, which sounds bullish in isolation. It is not, in this context.

MooninPapa was direct about what the stablecoin dominance setup means for positioning. “Red May and June are looking very likely,” he said on X. “If you have open long positions, today is the day to make a plan.”

BTC’s fast line sits at $75,530. A cross below that level sets the next leg down, per the analysis. RSI printed 49.48 on Tuesday. The 45 level is what traders need to watch as critical support. The 4-hour TBO close long remains open and should tag $77,060 before resolving, though MooninPapa noted the target doesn’t change the broader picture.

ETH closed below its fast line at $2,258. OBV already crossed bearish. MooninPapa is expecting a move down to $2,100, and the structure on the chart isn’t offering much resistance to that read.

TradFi Isn’t Helping Either

DXY is pushing toward 99.516. USDJPY is holding above the cloud at resistance while weekly TBT bearish divergences stack up. It’s stubborn, MooninPapa noted on X. The kind of stubborn that breaks badly.

S&P futures printed a perfect 3-in-a-row TBO breakout cluster after a 12% rally. RSI is now putting in lower highs, a classic bearish divergence. Gold is heading to the slow line at $4,527 for what MooninPapa sees as another buy opportunity. Silver lost the 1.272 level and is tracking toward $69.92.

On individual picks, MooninPapa’s read on X skewed heavily bearish. $ZEC printed a TBT bearish divergence, confirmed. $TAO is a short setup at the fast line. $FET confirmed a TBO open short on the daily. $DCR is heading toward $14 to $15. $ZBCN logged a 10.48% drop with a TBT cluster, and MooninPapa noted the days look numbered.

$HYPE has support at $38.27, then $26 to $27 below that. $NEAR, $RENDER, and $AERO are all showing bearish signals as the macro turns. $PI and $XTZ are the current runners in the market, though MooninPapa flagged both for potential rejection.

Solana, Sui, and a group of viewer picks all came back strong bearish in the session review. AAVE was covered. So was GitLab. $DENT was cited as a lesson in why “strong bearish” doesn’t mean cheap.

The 2022 parallel isn’t perfect. It rarely is. But stablecoin dominance isn’t printing that setup by accident.

Disclaimer: This article is based on technical analysis shared by the cited source and reflects the views of the analyst referenced. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct independent research before making any financial decisions.