Senator Tillis drops opposition, clearing path for Warsh as Fed chair

Senator Thom Tillis has dropped his opposition to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed chair. Odds of Warsh being confirmed by May 15 now sit at 88% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

Tillis’s block was the main obstacle, and its removal triggered the 59-point jump in the May 15 market. The May 1 market remains at just 2% YES. Traders are pricing in a clear path but a tight timeline: the committee will likely move fast, but not fast enough for May 1. The June 30 confirmation market is at 97%.

Why it matters

The volume tells part of the story. Face value of trades is $75,123, with $19,708 in actual USDC traded. The May 15 market alone accounts for $17,756 in USDC. Moving the price 5 points requires $1,590, which indicates real liquidity rather than thin-book noise.

With Tillis dropping his block, the DOJ inquiry into Powell’s renovations no longer clouds Warsh’s path. Buying YES shares at 88¢ returns $1 upon confirmation by May 15, a 1.14x return.

What to watch

Senate Banking Committee scheduling is the next catalyst. Any DOJ announcements regarding Powell matter too. A committee vote or an official DOJ closure of the renovations inquiry would push these odds higher.

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