Samsung Q1 profit beats expectations, starts HBM4 production for Nvidia

Samsung Electronics reported Q1 net profit of 47.1T won, beating expectations on the strength of its chip division and the start of HBM4 mass production for NVIDIA’s platform. The Polymarket contract on NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 sits at 85.5% YES, down from 92% a day ago.

The April 30 market holds at 99.9% YES, effectively pricing NVIDIA’s near-term position as a lock. The June 30 market tells a different story: a drop from 92% to 85.5% YES in 24 hours. That 10-point decline between late May and June pricing suggests traders see real risk over the longer window, even with Samsung’s positive earnings in hand.

Trading volume for the June market is thin: $8,602 in actual USDC against a face value of $9,377/day. The largest single move was a 1-point spike. Low liquidity here means a relatively small position could move the price. Traders appear to be factoring in geopolitical risk, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict and its potential effects on semiconductor supply chains.

Samsung beginning HBM4 production for NVIDIA points to strong chip demand ahead, but the market is pricing in external threats. A NO share at 15¢ on the June contract pays $1 if NVIDIA loses the top spot, a 6.7x return. That payout reflects the gap between Samsung’s supply-side signal and the geopolitical uncertainty traders are weighing.

Key factors to track: developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict, Samsung’s supply chain continuity, and any strategic announcements from NVIDIA. Each could move the June contract materially given current low volume.

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