Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria leads with 44.5% in parliamentary election

Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria is leading with 44.59% of votes in the parliamentary election. The market for Radev to be Bulgaria’s next prime minister sits at 95.3% YES, up from 76% a week ago.

Market reaction

The Radev prime minister market moved from 76% to 95.3% over the past week as preliminary vote counts came in. The cost to move Radev’s odds 5 percentage points is $3,810. USDC volume is at $24,076/day, though a single large trade could still shift the price. The largest recent move was a 4-point drop.

Why it matters

Progressive Bulgaria won the largest vote share, but Bulgaria’s parliament is fragmented and a coalition is still required to govern. Radev needs to secure partnerships with other parties to form a majority. The 91.5% odds imply traders expect him to negotiate a coalition successfully, but the 4-point drop shows the market is pricing in some risk of failure.

What to watch

Coalition talks with GERB-UDF or PP-DB will determine whether Radev can form a government. Announcements of partnership agreements or rejections from these parties will move the market. At 95.3¢, a YES share pays $1 if Radev becomes Prime Minister, a 1.09x return. Limited upside, but traders are pricing in high certainty.

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