Nvidia market cap surpasses India’s entire stock market

Nvidia’s market cap now exceeds the total value of India’s stock market, and the Polymarket contract asking “Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?” sits at 99.8%.

The April 30 market is at near certainty, down slightly from 100% yesterday but up from 99% a week ago. Traders are almost universally pricing in Nvidia holding the top spot by market cap through month-end. Daily USDC volume on this contract is $55,014, and it takes only $88 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, which tells you how thin the remaining liquidity on the NO side is.

The June 30 market tells a different story. Odds there are 83.5%, down from 92% just 24 hours ago. That 8.5-point drop suggests traders are pricing in competitive pressures or broader market volatility over the next two months. The cost to move this market 5 percentage points is $13,111, and daily volume is $8,602, a much thicker book than the April contract.

At 83.5%, a YES share on the June 30 contract pays $1 if Nvidia maintains its lead, a 1.2x return. That bet requires Nvidia to hold off risks like antitrust action or a broader tech sector selloff over two months rather than two days.

Earnings announcements from Microsoft or Apple could directly affect whether Nvidia keeps the top market cap spot. Any large move in a rival’s valuation reprices the June contract.

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