No ships cross Strait of Hormuz as Iran tightens control

No ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz today, as confirmed by Bloomberg. US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 now sit at 19% YES, up slightly from 18% yesterday.

Iran’s reimposed control of the strait and the IRGC’s aggressive posturing have cooled the market’s view on US naval escorts. US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 bumped to 19%, though bettors remain skeptical. UK warships transiting the strait are at 8.5% YES.

The market sees little chance of the UK or other nations risking a naval confrontation, especially given the IRGC’s threats against any vessels approaching the strait. UK warship odds dropped from 12% yesterday to 8.5% today. Iran’s rapid policy reversal is an escalation that puts any naval operations at higher risk.

Actual USDC trading on these markets is moderate, with $8,310 on US escorts. The market is thin: just $260 needed to move it 5 points. A notable 4-point spike occurred at 1:20 PM (24% → 28%), suggesting some trader conviction.

This is a genuine shift, not noise. Iran’s control of the strait is the core variable. At 22¢, a YES share for US escorts by April 30 pays $1, a 4.55x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe the US will decide to break the blockade within 12 days, a tall order given current tensions.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or reports of US naval movements. Macron’s diplomatic maneuvers or unexpected IRGC restraint could also shift the odds.

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