Mass rallies in Iran show support for leadership on Imam Reza anniversary

Mass rallies across Iran on Imam Reza’s birth anniversary signal strong support for Mojtaba Khamenei, with odds of the Iranian regime falling by April 30 at 0.1% YES, unchanged from yesterday.

Market reaction

The demonstrations, framed as a show of national unity and reported by state-affiliated Press TV, reduce the perceived likelihood of regime change by December 31. The market for Iranian leadership change by December 31 reflects this, with odds expected to decline given the apparent consolidation of regime power.

The term structure in the Iranian regime fall market jumps from 0.1% YES for April 30 to 8.5% YES for June 30. Traders are pricing in potential catalysts over the coming months, but the immediate outlook stays flat.

Why it matters

Trading volume in the regime fall market sits at $23,056 in actual USDC traded over the past 24 hours. It takes $4,529 to move the April contract 5 points, a thin market where a few large trades can shift pricing meaningfully.

The rallies reinforce perceptions of regime stability, though their weight should be discounted against the tier-3 source reliability. At 8.5¢, a YES share for a June 30 regime fall pays $1, a 11.8x return. That’s a long-shot bet unless you expect upheaval within the next 62 days.

What to watch

Signs of dissent within Iran’s leadership or changes in Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances. Specific triggers: IRGC defections or unexpected Assembly of Experts meetings, either of which would suggest a shift in internal power dynamics.

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