Iran’s Rezaei dismisses Trump’s nuclear claims as “April lies” amid rising tensions

Ebrahim Rezaei, head of Iran’s Parliament National Security Commission, called Trump’s nuclear and strategic claims “April lies.” The chance of a US-Iran ceasefire breach announcement by April 21 sits at 23% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Traders moved fast after Rezaei’s statement. The April 21 ceasefire market spiked from 14% to 18% following the release, pricing in higher risk of a breach in the coming days. Meanwhile, Iran’s uranium enrichment agreement by April 30 dropped to 30.4% YES, down from 50% yesterday, a sharp move reflecting skepticism about any near-term deal.

The ceasefire market has $3,485 in USDC traded, with $498 in order book depth to move 5 points, moderate liquidity. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 3-point spike on the Rezaei news alone. The uranium market trades thicker at $34,430 daily USDC volume but showed more volatility, with a swift 4-point drop yesterday.

Rezaei’s dismissal makes de-escalation harder to price in. Both markets now reflect growing doubt that talks will produce results as Iranian rhetoric hardens. Buying YES shares at 23¢ pays $1 if a ceasefire breach is announced, a 5.56x return. That bet requires confidence that escalation continues over the next 3 days.

Watch for Trump’s response on social media and any further statements from Iranian leadership. Either could move these markets significantly before the April 21 deadline.

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