Iran warns US maritime actions risk decisive military response

Iran’s warning of a decisive response to US maritime actions has traders watching for potential escalation. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 sits at 100% YES.

Odds for Iranian military action have held at 100% across all relevant sub-markets, including strikes on Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE. With six days left until April 30, traders are pricing in imminent action. The market for a US declaration of war on Iran by December 31 is at 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday. The April 30 war declaration odds remain negligible at 0.4% YES.

Volume in the Iran military action market is nonexistent, suggesting limited actual trading despite the 100% odds. The US declaration of war market saw $392 in real USDC traded, with $2,981 needed to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.

The 100% odds paired with zero volume point to a gap between the posted price and real conviction. Iran’s rhetoric may be directed at domestic audiences without crossing into outright conflict. A YES share at 0.4¢ in the US declaration of war by April 30 market pays $1 if resolved, a 250x return, but there is no sign of congressional action to back that bet.

Watch for IRGC naval unit movements or official US responses. Trump’s next move and any change in IRGC deployments are the most direct indicators.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.