Iran targets 36 merchant vessels, escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions

Iran has reportedly targeted at least 36 merchant vessels since February 28, escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between April 13-19 sit at 0.4% YES.

Market reaction

The April 13-19 transit market prices the sub-10 ship scenario at near zero despite confirmed vessel targeting. With one day left in the contract, the market is either pricing in late diplomatic intervention or discounting the likelihood of a full closure. Any sudden shift in naval or diplomatic activity could move these odds sharply.

Why it matters

Trading volume is thin. Actual USDC traded was $57 in the past 24 hours, with a face value of $2,923 per day. It takes just $12 to move the odds by 5 points, meaning even small trades can cause large price swings. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike, consistent with cautious positioning.

What to watch

The ongoing targeting of vessels is a signal of sustained risk, not a new development. At 0.4%, a YES share costs less than a penny. If the strait closes or escalations intensify, the payout is large, but that bet requires confidence in further disruptions within 24 hours. Watch for announcements from the IRGC or CENTCOM on transit restrictions or naval blockades. A change in military posture or a diplomatic breakthrough could move these odds fast.

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