Iran retains 40% of drones, 60% of missiles despite 13,000 strikes

After more than 13,000 strikes, Iran still holds roughly 40% of its attack drones and 60% of its missiles. The odds of Iran striking Israel by April 30 are at 100% YES.

Market reaction

Current odds for Iranian military action by April 30 show unchanged 100% YES across all sub-markets. Iran’s missile city strategy, which disperses and hardens its arsenal across underground facilities, keeps its stockpiles operational even after sustained attrition.

Why it matters

The market for Iran striking any country by April 30 is fully priced in. Zero face value and zero actual USDC volume confirm that traders treat the outcome as settled rather than actively speculating on it. With 40% of drones and 60% of missiles still intact, Iran retains enough capacity to sustain operations or escalate.

What to watch

A YES share at 100% offers no upside. The only trading opportunity here comes from disruption: a diplomatic breakthrough, an unexpected military setback, or a shift in rhetoric from Ali Khamenei or IRGC leadership. Any of these could move the price off its ceiling and create short windows for NO positions.

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