Iran fires on tankers as US plans to board Iran-linked vessels in Hormuz

Iran fired on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz while the US announced plans to board Iran-linked vessels. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13-19 saw YES odds jump to 0.4% after a 2-point spike earlier today.

Market reaction

The immediate impact is on the April 13-19 market, with odds inching up but still negligible. The market has just $14 in actual USDC traded, so even a small order moves prices. The cost to shift the price by 5 points is $12. Meanwhile, the April 30 market for 80 ships transiting any day by end of April has dropped to 26.5% YES, down from 51% yesterday.

Why it matters

The odds of 80 ships transiting on any single day by April 30 have been cut in half in 24 hours. New enforcement measures from the US and active Iranian fire on commercial vessels both discourage transit traffic. For traders, 26.5¢ YES shares pay $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 4.5x return. That bet requires a dramatic de-escalation or diplomatic breakthrough in the next 12 days.

What to watch

CENTCOM’s next operational move and any official statements signaling a shift in US or Iranian posture. Also watch for shipping announcements or actions from Oman or Saudi Arabia that could directly affect transit numbers.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.