Iran fears inevitable protests amid economic crisis: Iran Intl

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council fears a return of popular protests driven by economic crises, according to Iran International. The prospect of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES.

Market reaction

The meeting was prompted by intelligence reports about unrest fueled by economic hardship. The Reza Pahlavi entry market is up from 4% a week ago. The December 31 market is at 14.5% YES, a slight uptick as traders price in the possibility of a Pahlavi return during political instability.

The Iranian regime fall market for May 31 actually dipped to 3.4% YES, down from 5% just 24 hours ago. Traders appear skeptical that protests alone would threaten regime stability in the near term. Daily volume is $956,969 face value with $37,360 in actual USDC trading, enough liquidity to resist small manipulations.

Why it matters

The council’s own admission that protests are “inevitable” signals internal anxiety about the regime’s grip on power. But without direct action from opposition figures like Pahlavi, the path from street protests to regime change remains unclear. The divergence between the rising Pahlavi entry odds and the falling regime collapse odds suggests traders see these as separate questions: Pahlavi might try to return, but the regime is unlikely to fall within 37 days even if protests erupt.

What to watch

A YES share in the regime fall market at 3.4¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by May 31, a 29.4x return. That bet requires significant military defections or a collapse in governmental control within 37 days. Watch for IRGC defections or public statements by Reza Pahlavi signaling an imminent return. Either could move these markets fast.

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