Iran adviser dismisses Trump ceasefire extension, peace deal hopes plummet

An Iranian adviser called Trump’s ceasefire extension “meaningless,” and the market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 collapsed to 0.1% YES, down from 24% a week ago.

The adviser’s comments hit multiple markets. Ceasefire by April 21 odds are in freefall as traders read this as hardline resistance from Iran. The permanent peace deal market for April 30 dropped to 15.5% from 18% yesterday. The May 31 contract fell to 39.5%, down from 52% just 24 hours ago. The June 30 contract is now at 59.5%, showing traders are increasingly skeptical about a near-term deal.

Combined face value across these markets is $4.54M, with actual USDC traded at $433.8K. The largest single move was a 4-point spike on the April 30 contract, as traders reacted to any sign of progress, however brief.

The adviser’s stance points to entrenched opposition within Iran, complicating Trump’s strategy. At 0.1¢, a YES share for a deal by April 22 would pay $1, a return that matches its near-impossible odds. For traders, this confirms that optimistic bets depend entirely on unforeseen diplomatic breakthroughs.

Watch for shifts in Iran’s official stance or unexpected diplomatic efforts involving players like Pakistan. Changes in CENTCOM’s posture or statements from Trump via Truth Social could also move these markets.

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