Hormuz shipping traffic trickles as US-Iran tensions escalate

Hormuz shipping traffic continues at a trickle as US-Iran tensions deepen, with the likelihood of traffic returning to normal by April 30 at 18% YES.

Market reaction

The April 30 contract is effectively dead with only one day left. Trader confidence has collapsed, likely because sustained geopolitical friction has prevented any meaningful uptick in ship movements. Volume over the last 24 hours is negligible.

The “Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement” market, which tracks whether the US blockade will be lifted by May 31, 2026, has dropped to 43.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday. Trading volume is $134,629/day in actual USDC. The largest price move was a 5-point drop overnight, as traders recalibrated expectations around a quick resolution.

Why it matters

The continued deadlock in Hormuz shipping is a genuine shift, not noise. With traffic still suppressed, oil supply dynamics remain strained. At 18¢, a YES share on Hormuz traffic normalizing by April 30 would pay out handsomely if resolved, but the geopolitical conditions make that outcome unlikely with hours remaining. The direction of US-Iran relations in the coming days will directly affect oil market positioning.

What to watch

Statements from US and Iranian officials are the main catalyst either way. Mohammadreza Rezaei Kouchi and Secretary Hegseth are the key figures whose next moves will determine whether negotiations begin or tensions escalate further.

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