Energy Secretary Wright noncommittal on gas prices, inflation concerns persist

Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s refusal to commit on future gas prices has kept inflation concerns alive. The market for no Fed rate cuts in 2026 sits at 34.8% YES, down from 41% a week ago.

Wright declined to say whether gas prices would stay above $3 per gallon until 2027, feeding into existing worries about sticky inflation. The Fed rate cuts in 2026 market has moved from 41% to 34.8% YES over the past week, suggesting traders now see rate cuts as somewhat more likely than they did seven days ago. The drop coincides with unresolved geopolitical tensions that continue to affect energy prices and, by extension, inflation expectations.

Daily volume on the Fed rate cuts market is $30,732 in USDC, and a $6,320 order can move prices by 5 points. The largest recent move was a 1-point drop. This is a moderately liquid market where traders are participating steadily but not making aggressive bets without clearer data.

At 35¢, a YES share on no rate cuts pays 2.86x if the Fed holds rates through 2026. The price reflects real skepticism about meaningful rate reductions. A shift in inflation data or a resolution to Middle East tensions could move these odds substantially in either direction.

Watch for statements from Kevin Warsh, the Fed Chair nominee, and upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meetings. Any signals on policy direction or updated economic forecasts will directly affect this market.

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