DOJ ends Powell probe, reducing urgency for Warsh confirmation

The DOJ dropped its probe into Jerome Powell, and odds for Powell being out by May 14, 2026, fell to 3.8% YES on Polymarket, down from 4% yesterday.

Market reaction

The May 14 market sits at 3.8%, with traders pricing in almost no chance of an immediate exit. The May 15 market jumped to 84% YES from 57% yesterday, which suggests some traders expect a development right after May 14. The May 31 and June 30 markets remain at 95.9% and 99.6% YES. Those longer-dated odds depend on Powell’s ability to hold his position as Trump continues pushing for a successor like Kevin Warsh.

Why it matters

The May 14 market trades $7,068 in actual USDC per day, and it takes only a $3,308 order to move the price 5 points. That’s thin enough for a single trader to move the odds meaningfully. The May 31 market, despite its high odds, sees very little actual USDC volume, making it even more sensitive to small trades.

Powell’s confirmed stay reduces the urgency around Warsh’s confirmation, reflected in the inactive Fed Chair Confirmation Predictions market.

What to watch

At 3.8¢, a YES share for Powell’s exit by May 14 pays $1 if he leaves, a 26x return. That payout would require a major reversal: an unexpected resignation or new legal action from the Trump administration. Watch for Powell’s public statements and any Senate Banking Committee activity on Warsh’s nomination. New legal maneuvers or shifts in political support for Powell’s removal could move these markets quickly.

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