Cleveland Fed President Hammack flagged ongoing inflation target misses and difficult supply shocks, with the Federal Reserve Rate Predictions for End of 2026 market pricing a YES share for a 4.25% federal funds rate by December 31 at 22¢.
Market reaction
Hammack’s remarks point to inflationary pressures that aren’t fading, which could push the Fed to hold rates steady or raise them. The end-of-2026 rate market has 260 days left to resolve, and FOMC meetings plus economic data releases will drive price action between now and then. In the Fed Rate Decisions market, her comments lower the probability of rate cuts in April. The next FOMC meeting is 15 days away, and traders will be looking for any dovish signals that might offset the hawkish tone.
Why it matters
Volume in both markets is at zero over the last 24 hours. No trades recorded means traders are sitting on their hands waiting for harder data. The thin order book also means a few large trades could move the odds sharply in either direction.
What to watch
Jerome Powell’s next speech and the upcoming FOMC minutes are the two nearest catalysts. Any CPI data surprises or signals of a policy shift will move these markets fast. At 22¢, a YES share on 4.25% by December 31 pays $1 if it resolves, a 4.5x return. That bet requires conviction that inflationary pressures will be strong enough to force the Fed’s hand.
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Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/cleveland-feds-hammack-warns-of-inflation-target-misses-supply-shocks/