Yankees Double Down On Run Prevention With Carlos Rodon Signing

It wasn’t all that long ago that Yankee fans were aghast as the crosstown rival Mets had begun a signing spree while their beloved Bombers appeared on the verge of losing reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge to the San Francisco Giants. Now here we are, with Judge in the fold and the Yanks pilfering prized free agent lefthanded starter Carlos Rodon from those same Giants.

Now this offseason has blown up any preexisting precepts regarding evaluation of elite baseball talent – Judge has joined the $40M per year club, and shortstops Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts are now all signed into their forties, with total financial guarantees ranging from $280-350M. Even the pitching market, where clubs are a bit more circumspect about contract length, has seen the oft-injured Jacob deGrom sign for five years, $185M with the Texas Rangers.

It was this spent, drained market that Rodon entered after all of those options were off of the table. The one factor that ignited this entire industry-wide boom is likely the one that pushed Rodon to the Bronx. Mets’ owner Steve Cohen had not only rattled the cages of fellow NL East front offices in Philadelphia and Atlanta, he had poked the bear across town, extending from the office of GM Brian Cashman to the suite of owner Hal Steinbrenner. The Yankees do not take kindly to being second banana in their own city.

So Rodon it is. A few weeks ago, I likely would have opined that six years is an awful long commitment for a pitcher with such a lengthy injury dossier as Rodon. That remains true. But when you compare it to deGrom’s deal, or even Justin Verlander’s $43.3M AAV contract over a much shorter two-year term, $27M per year for Rodon is quite a bit more palatable.

Over the past two years, Rodon has been one of the game’s very best pitchers. If you go by my batted-ball based “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average, only the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes and Phillies’ Zack Wheeler, thanks to their historic 2021 campaigns, have been better. Rodon came in 2nd in my 2022 NL Cy Young rankings, with 28.8 TPRAA. In 2021, despite finishing nearly 30 innings shy of the 162 IP needed to qualify for the ERA title, he posted the 3rd highest AL TPRAA mark at 24.8. He’s been utterly dominant – and relatively healthy – over the past two seasons.

About that health, however……in the previous two campaigns, Rodon pitched a total of 42 innings. He had arthroscopic left shoulder surgery back in 2017. He had Tommy John surgery on his lefty elbow in 2019, and as recently as August of 2021 he was shut down for a few weeks with left shoulder fatigue. The injury risk with Rodon is substantially higher than the already high level typical of any free agent starting pitcher.

That said, a healthy Rodon is not likely to implode performance-wise, a la, let’s say, Patrick Corbin. He is an elite bat-misser, one of the very best in the game, and one of the youngest among that exclusive group of starters. His once subpar command has gradually improved, and has now actually become a a secondary asset. Just as impressively, Rodon is now a clearly above average contact manager. Though a fly ball pitcher, he has contained fly ball authority well, and has developed a fairly pronounced pop up tendency. His Adjusted Contact Scores of 89 and 88 the past two years were both well above average.

Pair an elite K rate with plus command and contact management, and you’ve got a superstar.

That’s what Rodon is today, and what a healthy version of him will be moving forward. Of course, his health is a major caveat, and when you compare him to most of the older pitchers and younger position players who have recently signed for even more money, the incremental risk is easily quantifiable. Plus, a fly ball pitcher can decline rapidly unless adjustments are made as his stuff begins to plateau.

That said, the Yanks now run out a Rodon, Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, Frankie Montas rotation, with the eminently solid Domingo German waiting in the wings for an opportunity. That’ll work. It may have taken Steve Cohen to wake up the Yankees, but their eyes are now clearly wide open.