XAG/USD sticks to modest gains, seems vulnerable below $24.30-25

• Silver regains positive traction on Friday and moves away from a two-week low.
• The bearish technical setup warrants caution before positioning for further gains.
• A sustained move beyond the $25.00 mark is needed to negate the negative bias.

Silver attracts some buying on the last day of the week and reverses a part of Thursday’s steep intraday slide to the $24.00 mark or over a two-week low. The white metal sticks to its modest intraday gains through the early European session and currently trades around the $24.20-$24.15 region, up nearly 0.30% for the day.

From a technical perspective, the overnight failure ahead of the $25.00 psychological mark and the subsequent slump below the $24.30-$24.25 horizontal zone might have already shifted the near-term bias in favour of bearish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on hourly charts are holding deep in the negative territory and suggest that any subsequent intraday positive move runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.

That said, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have been losing traction – are yet to confirm the negative outlook. This makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling and acceptance below the $24.00 mark before placing fresh bearish bets. The XAG/USD could then slide to the $23.20-$23.15 region en route to the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the $22.00 mark.

The downward trajectory could get extended further and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to challenge the multi-month low, around the $22.15-$22.10 area touched in June.

On the flip side, momentum beyond the $24.25-$24.30 region is likely to attract fresh sellers near the $24.60-$24.65 area. This, in turn, should cap the XAG/USD near the $25.00 mark. This is followed by the monthly peak, around the $25.25 zone, which if cleared decisively will negate the negative outlook. Silver might then aim to surpass the $25.50-$25.55 intermediate hurdle and accelerate the move to reclaim the $26.00 mark.

Silver daily chart

Key levels to watch