WTI moves in a tight range before monthly reports from oil agencies, hovers around $77.80

• WTI price remains silent ahead of monthly market reports from OPEC, IEA, and EIA.
• CME FedWatch Tool suggests a 68.9% probability of a rate cut in June.
• EIA released that US Crude oil production reached a record-breaking average production of 12.9M bpd.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price hovers around $77.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Crude oil markets remain subdued, awaiting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States (US). Expectations are for a modest uptick in February’s US inflation figures, although the annual index is forecasted to hold steady.

A strong CPI report would probably diminish the likelihood of an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which could in turn bolster the US Dollar (USD) and pose challenges for crude oil prices. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there has been a slight decrease in the probability of a rate cut in June, now standing at 68.9%.

Market participants are also eagerly anticipating the release of monthly market reports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) this week, aiming to assess the global demand outlook.

ANZ analysts noted in a report that “Crude oil remains within a narrow trading range as traders await demand projections from the monthly reports issued by three major oil agencies.” While they anticipate these projections to remain largely unchanged, any unexpected upward revisions would alleviate demand concerns.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US Crude oil production has continued to lead global oil production for the sixth consecutive year, reaching a record-breaking average production of 12.9 million barrels per day (bpd). US Crude oil production surged to a new monthly record high of over 13.3 million bpd in December.