WTI crude edged up, snaps two-day slump amid weaker USD, global supply dynamics

• WTI nudges up to $82.85 per barrel, gaining 0.40%, as the USD experiences a pullback, ending a 12-week rally.
• US job growth impresses with a 336K rise, yet Federal Reserve officials hint at a potential pause on rate hikes.
• Russia’s lifted diesel export ban and a dip in US oil rigs introduce new variables into WTI’s supply-demand equation.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, snaps two days of losses and climbs 0.55% late in the New York session. News that Russia’s lifted a fuel export ban capped the ongoing fally, while global economic headwinds threaten to dent demand.

Oil prices find respite as Russia lifts export bans, US Dollar retreats.

At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $82.85 per barrel and posting minimal gains of 0.40%. Oil’s uptick is attributed to broad US Dollar (USD) weakness, sparked after Greenback’s buyers booked profits ahead of the weekend. Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against its rival, posts weekly losses of -12% halting its 12-week rally.

Although the latest raft of US economic data was US Dollar-supportive, an overextended uptrend suggested the buck was headed for a mean reversion move. US job growth rose by 336K in September, as revealed by the Department of Labor, smashing estimates and the previous month’s data.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials remain muted regarding the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which justifies the need for higher rates. But San Francisco’s Fed President Mary Daly said, “The recent rise in Treasury yields is doing some of the work for the Fed, and if that doesn’t reverse and inflation continues to cool, the Fed can leave rates on hold.”

In the meantime, Russia’s lifted its ban on diesel exports for supplies delivered to ports by pipeline, cushioning WTI’s advance as supply increases.

On the oil data front, US oil rigs fell five to 497 this week, the lowest level since February 2022, according to the energy services firm Baker Hughes.

WTI Technical Levels