Will Ukraine Be Russia’s Next Afghanistan?

Having recognized two breakaway regions held by rebels in eastern Ukraine, President Putin has ordered Russian forces to move into them for ‘peacekeeping’ operations. Given the regular violations of the ceasefire between rebels and Ukrainian forces — OCSE monitors recorded “2,158 ceasefire violations, including 1,100 explosions” from Feb. 18-20 — there is every chance of conflict escalating. This could involve Russian forces invading areas currently held by Ukrainian forces.

The Ukrainian forces are heavily outmatched on the ground. Russian air superiority and the ability to knock out vital defenses with long-range missile strikes, combined with information and cyberwarfare capability could produce enough Shock & Awe to make local units to flee or surrender with minimal fighting.

Some have suggested that the solution is to turn Ukraine into ‘a new Afghanistan’ for Russia. Writing in the Atlantic Council’s blog, Andriy Zagorodnyuk says that an insurgency could make an invasion too expensive: “By combining serving military units with combat veterans, reservists, territorial defense units, and large numbers of volunteers, Ukraine can create tens of thousands of small and highly mobile groups capable of attacking Russian forces. This will make it virtually impossible for the Kremlin to establish any kind of administration over occupied areas or secure its lines of supply.”

Zagorodnyuk points to a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showing that as many as one in three Ukrainians would be ready to participate in armed resistance. Media coverage of ‘Babushka Battalions’ of Kalashnikov-toting grandmothers gives the impression of a country ready to fight tooth and nail. Zagorodnyuk suggests that rushing supplies of light anti-tank weapons, night-vision gear, small drones and secure communication gear to Ukraine may be the best way to counter an invasion.

However, others point out that this optimistic view of a country uniting to fight Russian invaders may not work out as intended. One problem is that the Ukrainian army is entirely trained in conventional rather than insurgent warfare, as Michael Kofman and Jeffrey Edmonds note in Foreign Affairs, and could not simply switch to guerilla tactics:

“That would entail abandoning most of its heavy armor and artillery and focusing instead on infantry armed with shoulder-fired missiles to hit tanks or aircraft. But such a shift is easier in theory than in practice. The Ukrainian army is trained to operate in larger units with armor and artillery; it cannot easily turn to partisan warfare,” write the authors.

They also note that Russia’s force of drones equipped with thermal imagers and other sensors will make it much harder for small groups to get away after hit-and-run attacks than in previous conflicts.

“Today, small groups of fighters may struggle to hide and to win on the battlefield,” they write.

Rob Lee, a military analyst at King’s College London, argues that Russia will have learned from the U.S. experience in Afghanistan and will be wary of occupying areas where its force might encounter resistance from the local population. Instead, he suggests that they will concentrate on destroying Ukrainian military capability, overwhelming military units and taking prisoners then pulling back, all with the aim of putting enough pressure to get Ukrainian President Zelensky to give in to Russian demands.

“I’m not sure an insurgency is as big of a threat to Russia’s plans as we think,” says Lee in a series on Twitter.

Lee says that Putin may believe he can force Zelensky into concessions with this type of military action without the need for an occupation.

An additional factor, sometimes ignored by military analysts, is the tremendous human cost of an insurgency. Harlan K. Ullman, now senior adviser to the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C ., told Forbes that hawkish ideas of “another Afghanistan” for Russia are counterproductive. In particular, he notes that it would be a disaster for the Ukrainian people, and would send millions of refugees heading into the rest of Europe. The UNHCR records that there are currently 2.6 million Afghan refugees, down from a high of some six million.

There is also another lesson from the Soviet experience in Afghanistan. The Mujahedeen resistance movement supported by the U.S. eventually spun off groups including the fanatically anti-American Taliban as well as Al Qaida.

Partisan resistance to Russian forces may be popular with those who want to see Russia punished and Putin thwarted, especially in the absence of direct military support from NATO. But it may come at a tremendous cost to the Ukrainian people without ultimately helping them.