Why The Los Angeles Lakers Need To Go All-In As Soon As Possible

Russell Westbrook and two first-round draft picks for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield.

The above deal has been rumored for months, with the Lakers seemingly unwilling to include both their remaining tradeable draft selections in 2027 and 2029, and Indiana refusing to relinquish that caliber of talent, and taking on the contract of Westbrook, for anything less.

The mexican standoff is likely to spill into the regular season until someone caves. But with the emergence of Victor Wembanyama as arguably the most hyped draft pick over the past two decades, an interesting subplot has entered the narrative.

The ghost of the Anthony Davis trade

When the Lakers traded for Anthony Davis in 2019, they gave up the farm. Virtually all their draft capital went to the New Orleans Pelicans, along with Brandon Ingram who developed into an All-Star in the Big Easy.

In that package was a 2023 swap option, that gives the Pelicans the right to swap first-round picks. The swap is entirely unprotected, meaning the Lakers could – in theory – win the NBA Draft Lottery, and thus the right to select Wembanyama, only for the Pelicans to exercise that right, swoop in, and pick off the generational talent with the Lakers forced to watch.

Some might point to the Lakers having a certain player on the roster by the name of LeBron James, and argue that with him around, it’s impossible for the franchise to ever be that bad to be in contention for the first overall pick.

That logic is, however, highly flawed. The Lakers conveyed their 2022 first-rounder to the Pelicans, which ended up being the eight overall selection, as a result of a 33-win season. Even if they finish at the same spot this season, the lottery is still a lottery, meaning they could potentially win it.

If Davis has another injury-riddled season, and they don’t find a solution to the Westbrook conundrum, it won’t really matter if they have a soon-to-be 38-year-old James.

The level of control the Lakers do have is pulling the trigger on the Indiana trade, and thus drastically improving their chances of making it to the playoffs. That way, they could avoid forking over a lottery selection to the Pelicans.

The logic of going all-in

It’s understandable if the Lakers look at that trade as a lost cause, and wish to not let it dictate future moves. However, that would be dangerous.

If the Lakers do end up winning the lottery, and thus be forced to send the rights to Wembanyama to the Pelicans, consider for a moment the change in power dynamic in the NBA.

The Pelicans, with Wembanyama, Zion Williamson, Ingram, CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Dyson Daniels, and whoever they can get for Jonas Valanciunas will likely enter Wembanyama’s rookie season as a legitimate championship candidate, and quickly turn into the championship favorites by the next season, which is a status that could last for a decade.

Not only would the Lakers themselves, who are still trying to win, have no chance of beating that Pelicans team; they’d have built a powerhouse within their own conference that would have instant dynasty upside.

(They’d also add a reported $500 million to their franchise value, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.)

What incentive would James or Davis have to stay in that conference, knowing they stand a better chance of getting back to the Finals by joining a team in the East?

Granted, this is long-term, worst-case thinking. But given the flattened lottery odds, the worst three teams stand just a 14% chance to win the lottery. The ten worst teams all stand at least a 3% chance of winning the lottery. So this isn’t inconceivable.

There would be an incredible ripple effect should the above scenario play out, one that would essentially remove the Lakers, and most other Western Conference team, from serious contention for a long time.

As such, it would actually be in the best interest of the Lakers themselves to be proactive, and not block their future path towards the Finals. That means caving, and forking over the two selections to Indiana.

Heck, it might even be in the best interest of most Western Conference teams to further help the Lakers avoid the Wembanyama scenario, as to not help them build a generational team in New Orleans that would compete against them for the next decade. That is how absurd a situation this could become.

As for the Pelicans, they’re just biding their time and hoping the Lakers implode once again. General manager David Griffin would want for nothing more than the Lakers to insist upon their stubbornness, and for this to drag out for as long as possible, solely for the Lakers to dig themselves as deep a hole as they can, before they wake up and realize what they stand to benefit by making that Pacers trader sooner than later.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.