Why MLS Should Call An Audible Negotiating New TV Deal

If you believe the credible reporting around Major League Soccer’s search for a new national TV contract beginning in 2023, it’s becoming increasingly clear MLS is unlikely to get the megadeal it wants.

Well into his third decade as MLS commissioner, Don Garber could add to an already significant legacy with deal that sets the league up for considerable revenue growth beyond his tenure. Last December, CNBC reported that the original asking price could be in the ballpark of $300-million annually for the next agreement.

And there’s a credible argument that MLS substantially undervalued based on the current, soon-to-expired deal worth roughly $90 million annually.

The league has expanded its reach considerably in growing by nine clubs over the course of the current TV agreement.

And those clubs are unarguably in a more stable and (for TV purposes) flexible position than in 2014, with 75% (21 of 28) now the primary tenants in purpose-built soccer stadiums.

But here’s the problem: As World Soccer Talk and other outlets have noted, the timing of the expiration of MLS’ current contract is problematic. The combination of the United States’ failure to reach the 2018 FIFA World Cup, the success of other soccer properties on American airwaves, and the relative abstractness of another World Cup on American soil still four years away have all given MLS less leverage than Garber could have forseen eight years ago.

At the same time, there’s also an easy solution, albeit one that has short-term costs: Make a shorter term deal now — at two or three years and possibly at a discount — with a broadcaster that will commit more resources to growing the league’s brand. Then try to reach a longer-term agreement in 2024 or 2025 when the next World Cup is near.

Part of the problem right now is that MLS is negotiating at the tail end a uniquely pessimistic era in American soccer. And unlike previous eras when networks doubted the appeal of any version of the sport, the key problem word is not “soccer” but “American” (And to some extent, “American men’s,” given the consistent global success of the U.S. women). The United States’ failure to reach the 2018 World Cup was the most embarrassing soccer moment in national history, exactly because the program had attained a profile to where casual American fans cared. And MLS — fairly or not — became the face of much of that embarrassment. (The league still placed 19 players on 2018 World Cup rosters despite neither the U.S. or Canada qualifying.)

That reputation will change by default following the 2022 tournament this November and December when MLS is likely to place a league-record number of players on tournament rosters. World Cup TV ratings that decreased about 37% in 2018 from 2014 with the U.S. team absent are also likely to rebound in a major way. American broadcasters could not have asked for a better TV schedule, headlined by a group clash against England on Black Friday afternoon East Coast time. And using the 2026 World Cup to sell broadcasters on MLS as a growth opportunity may be much easier with 2022 World Cup ratings in the rearview.

As for the interim, it’s not entirely clear what a new broadcast partner could offer MLS in terms of visibility and ratings. But through a third of the current MLS season, outward appearances are that the current partners on the English-language side have little interest in trying to grow the league’s reach.

The level of promotion of MLS on ESPN has been particularly conspicuously at a network with a reputation for utilizing its own non-game content to amplify the products it carries. The placement of telecasts has also been puzzling. Look no further to this Sunday, when ESPN held its first MLS doublheader of the season — directly against two NBA playoff Game 7s being shown on ABC and produced by ESPN.

There remains consistent local interest in MLS games. The 2022 league average attendance is around 16,000 and — considering attendance generally rises in the warmer months — will likely land around the recent annual averages of just north of 21,000 a game.

That’s roughly double the average attendance of the NWSL, the top women’s league in the U.S. that has dominated MLS in the TV ratings battle this year.

Part of that probably owes to the fact the NWSL can credibly claim to be one of the world’s elite leagues with the world’s best players. While the caliber of MLS play has improved considerably, as has its track record of selling players on to European success, it is clearly more of a second-tier league at this stage. But don’t underrate the resources CBS is pouring into its telecasts and surrounding content relative to ESPN and MLS. For example, the NWSL landing page at CBSSports.com website features nearly a dozen pieces of individual content. The MLS landing page on ESPN.com features two original pieces and a lot of wire content.

There’s no 100% reliable data to show a more devoted partner would boost MLS’ ratings and reach on a level closer to the NWSL or other popular America soccer properties like the English Premier League (NBC, Telemundo) or Mexico’s Liga MX (multiple broadcasters). But obviously, it couldn’t hurt.

And even if it only represented little change to the overall viewership picture by 2024 or 2025, it would be worth the time it buys MLS to become more appealing based on the legacy of the 2022 World Cup and the approaching 2026 tournament.