Why Juan Soto’s Reported Extension Is Not As Outlandish As It Seems

As Juan Soto highlights a non-competitive Nationals lineup this season, all the expected rumors have circulated about the young slugger.

Off and on extension rumors have been sandwiching trade rumors, which has left us with the most recent update from today.

According to Hector Gomez, “Talks are intensifying between the Nationals and Juan Soto regarding a second offer from the team to the star for a 13-years, $425 million extension, which will increase the initial $350 million offer by $75 million.”

If true, this would be the second-highest contract in MLB history, just falling behind Los Angeles Angel’s Mike Trout, who earned $426.5 million deal for the next 12-years.

Now, with Trout being universally expected as the greatest player in the sport, the deal did not receive a lot of backlash for being overpaid. In the trend of sport economics, lengthier contracts like Trout and potentially Soto’s are the new norm, as players prefer contract protection for the remainder of their careers over just AAV.

That being said, Soto is rumored to be signing the ‘Trout-esque’ contract heading into his age 24 season in 2023, as opposed to Trout at age 28.

So, by the end of his contract, Soto would be just 36-years old, a much more comfortable mark to still be paying over $30 million a year. Especially for a player of Soto’s makeup, who relies less of explosive athleticism and more-so on his pure offensive approach and power.

Another factor for it being worth it from the Nationals’ perspective is the fact that Soto’s ability is still rising.

The Dominican Republic native is currently in his career-worst year offensively, with 14 home runs and an .812 OPS. That is still 36% better than the average big leaguer.

For his career, Soto has a .290/.424/.534 slashline, averaging 164 hits, 34 homers and 103 RBIs per 162 games.

A big reason for his down year so far is the lack of support in the rest of the lineup, thus giving him no protection in the order. If the Nationals return to their 2019 form , you can expect Soto’s 2019 production.

A hitter as talented as #22 is once in a generation, which is another reason for the price tag as high as its rumored.

But, with the ability to have Soto as the face of the Nationals for another 13-years would repay the team extensively for years to come, once again similarly to how the Angels have with Trout.

In terms of off the field presence, Trout and Soto are similar in that respect as well. Although Soto has a different level of confidence on the diamond, hence the “Soto-shuffle” on pitches outside the zone, they both never seem to bring outside attention to themselves.

While team marketing would rather the face of a franchise to be more outspoken than these two, it is much better than the alternative of worry about what your franchise athlete will say. This is something that does not seem to be a worry yet for the young phenom.

The craziest part about this whole story is the fact that Soto does not become a free agent for another two seasons after 2022.

With two more years of arbitration remaining for Soto, the reason these talks are intensifying is due to the new timeline for young players: buying out their final years of arbitration while signing to an extension.

While Soto is making $17.1 million this year, he would potentially be doubling the AAV if he signed this deal today. However, if Soto were to take his arbitration rate until becoming a free agent, he could bet on himself to stay healthy and produce so that his pay day is even higher.

Usually when buying out arbitration, it is a team-friendly deal since the teams have more leverage.

So, with this rumored deal already battling Trout’s record-deal, it shows how sought after the 24-year old slugger already is.