What’s Behind His Invasion Into Ukraine?

On February 24, 2022, Russia shocked the world by invading neighboring Ukraine. Today, about three weeks later, Russia continues its aggression, including attacks on multiple civilian targets, even though most of the world has aligned against him. What could be behind Putin’s persistence? Only Putin and his inner circle know for sure, but there is enough factual data to form an educated guess.

Background to Russia

Russia has consistently been the second or third largest producer of petroleum products during the past decade. In fact, its three largest exports (2019) were Crude Petroleum, Refined Petroleum, and Petroleum Gas, the total of which equaled about 53% of total Russian exports. Russia’s largest customer was China, followed by the Netherlands, Belarus, Germany, and Italy. In short, petroleum products are Russia’s most important export providing a majority of its revenue.

Putin’s Past

Putin was the Director of the Federal Security Service in the late 1990s. The FSS is the principal security agency of Russia and the main successor agency to the Soviet Union’s KGB. He then became Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, an agency tasked with analyzing the president’s decisions on national security affairs and matters of strategic interest. After a brief stint there, he served as Prime Minister from August 1999 to May 2000. He resumed the Prime Minister role in 2008 and became President in 2012.

Restoring Russia’s Glory

Why did Putin attack Ukraine? Let’s go back to 1991, the year the Soviet Union was split into 15 independent republics. In 1990 – the year before the breakup of the U.S.S.R., it was the third largest economy behind the U.S. and Japan. Today, Russia is the largest country in the world by land mass, yet it is only the 11^th largest economy. Is it possible Putin wishes to restore the Soviet Union’s former glory? Is the Ukraine invasion part one (or part two if you count Crimea) of a broader plan? From the second quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2021, Russia’s economy contracted. Is this about money? With money comes power. Thus, it’s likely about both.

Let’s refer to the following map for clues. It shows the extent of the oil and gas pipeline infrastructure in the region as of 2014. Note how Ukraine (middle left of map) contains a great deal of pipeline. Note also how the pipelines extend west toward Europe. Moreover, Ukraine imports 58% of its gas from Russia and 66% of Russian gas exported to Europe travels through Ukraine. Annexing Ukraine would give Russia greater access to the Black Sea, along with Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. But it may not end with Ukraine.

Situated above Ukraine is Belarus, a country that is already aligned with Russia. If Russia conquers Ukraine, will it set its sights on Lithuania and Latvia to the north? While some may not consider these small countries as important, annexing both – along with Ukraine, would give Russia greater access to the Baltic Sea and a more direct route to both northern and southern Europe. However, Lithuania and Latvia are both members of NATO, so this is not a given. Will Russia test NATO’s resolve during this invasion as a precursor for future aggression? I’m not trying to promote a conspiracy theory, but one must wonder about Putin’s end game.

There is obviously much we don’t know. We do know that Putin has the background to think strategically and the resources to act. He also seems to have the will. Is Ukraine the final chapter in Russia’s infamous invasion? Will there be more to come?

Stay tuned.