Wall Street sets Tesla stock price target for the next 12 months

UBS has upgraded its rating on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) from “Sell” to “Neutral” on Tuesday, April 14, with a $352 price target.

However, analyst Joseph Spak said that current valuation levels reflect both near-term headwinds and Tesla’s longer-term opportunity in physical artificial intelligence (AI).

More specifically, while the automaker continues to face several short-term challenges, including softer electric vehicle (EV) demand, UBS expects it to eventually make progress in both autonomous mobility and robotics.

“We are Neutral-rated on TSLA. Our view is balanced by near-term demand challenges, an elevated investment period, and a lofty valuation with a large long-term physical AI opportunity. In our view, TSLA stock trades more on sentiment, narrative, and momentum than fundamentals. So we expect the stock may continue to exhibit high volatility,” Spak wrote.

At current levels, UBS estimates the stock is pricing in roughly $2.33 in earnings per share for 2027, closely aligned with its own forecast of $2.35 and slightly below broader consensus expectations of $2.47.

UBS upgrades Tesla to “Neutral” as Cybertruck U.S. sales hit a record low 

The investment bank cited several problems weighing on the stock, including softer EV demand, energy segment shortfalls, rising costs and capital expenditure, and slower-than-expected progress in robo-taxi development and the Optimus humanoid robot. Also worth mentioning is that Cybertruck U.S. sales have hit a record low.

Still, the bank expects eventual advancements in the above-mentioned areas and maintains its view of Tesla as “a leader in physical AI.”

“Recent concerns over EV demand, a 1Q26 energy shortfall, higher costs, higher capital spending requirements, and slow progress of robo-taxi and Optimus have weighed on the stock, in our view. However, we do expect eventual progress on robo-taxi and Optimus and continue to view TSLA as a leader in physical AI,” Spak added.

On the more positive side, Tesla saw strong momentum in Germany, where vehicle registrations surged more than 300% in March and rose 160% in the first quarter.

Is Tesla stock a buy?

Wall Street analysts remain generally cautious on Tesla. At Morgan Stanley, analyst Andrew Percoco highlighted Tesla’s growing data advantage while adding that clear progress toward fully unsupervised autonomy is still needed to justify the valuation. His rating remains “Equal Weight” with a $415 Tesla stock price target.

JPMorgan Chase analyst Ryan Brinkman warned the stock could drop as much as 60%, citing valuation concerns and execution risks. He maintains a “Sell” rating with a $145 price target.

Similarly bearish, GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson pointed to repeated delays in FSD development, reiterating a “Sell” rating with a $25.28 target.

On the more optimistic side, Deutsche Bank analysts led by Edison Yu offered a balanced take after testing Tesla’s robotaxi service. While they described the technology as impressive, they noted inefficiencies such as longer routing times. The firm expects improvements over time and maintains a “Buy” rating, albeit with a slightly reduced price target of $465.

According to data compiled by TipRanks, Tesla currently carries a “Hold” consensus rating based on 30 analyst reviews, including 13 “Buy,” 11 “Hold,” and 6 “Sell” recommendations. 

The average 12-month TSLA share price target stands at $402.29, implying roughly 14% upside, with forecasts ranging widely from $25.28 to $600.

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