Voters In Competitive Congressional Districts Are More Likely To Vote Republican—These Are The Races To Watch

Topline

Voters across the country are nearly evenly split on which party they will support for Congress in November’s upcoming midterm election, but the odds swing slightly in favor of Republicans in competitive districts, according to a new poll from CNN and SSRS that found 48% of voters in swing districts tilt to the right, compared to 43% who said they’d vote for Democrats.

Key Facts

Among all voters, 41% lack confidence in the plans of candidates from both parties to solve the country’s problems, but more, 32%, have confidence in Republicans, while 28% are confident in Democrats’ plans, according to the poll, which surveyed 1,982 adults, including 695 in competitive districts (margin of error -/+3).

More Republican voters (52%) are motivated to take to the polls than Democrats (46%), and that’s particularly true in competitive districts, where 55% of Republicans said they were deeply motivated to vote versus 45% of Democrats.

The economy and inflation are key issues, especially in competitive districts, where 67% said the economy was a driving factor in their voting preference, compared to 59% of all voters nationwide.

Other topics, including abortion, election issues and gun policy, carry about the same weight nationally as they do in competitive districts.

Democrats have lost support this election cycle among key voter bases, including young people, Black and Latino voters and women.

Among women, Democratic support has declined six points compared to a CNN poll taken in early October 2018, dipped ten points with Black and Latino voters and seven points among voters under the age of 45.

Races To Watch:

Virginia’s 2nd congressional district: Rep. Elaine Luria (D) is facing state Sen. Jen Kiggans (R)—both female Navy veterans–in a competition Republicans view as crucial in their bid to overtake the lower chamber and one that leans heavily on party talking points, including inflation and the economy on the Republican side and abortion rights and election denial on the left.

Nevada’s 3rd congressional district: Facing disillusionment about the economy among Latino voters, typically a reliable base for historically blue Nevada, attorney April Becker (R) is banking on voters’ economic woes and disapproval of President Joe Biden to oust well-funded Rep. Susie Lee (D) in the swing district that leans one point to the left, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s 2022 House Race Ratings.

New York’s 19th congressional district: After a Democrat won the district in a special election earlier this year that was considered a bellwether for which party would control Congress, the seat is again up for grabs on November 8 under new district lines that give Democrat Josh Riley a slight advantage over Marc Molinaro (R).

New Jersey’s 7th congressional district: Rep. Tom Malinowski (D), after beating Tom Kean Jr. (R) by a slim margin to win reelection in 2020, is facing a rematch with the son of the state’s popular former governor, Tom Kean, in a district that was redrawn last year to include 27,000 more Republican voters, but leans just one point to the right, according to Cook.

Tangent

Either party needs to win 218 seats to secure a majority among the 435 voting members of the House, all of which are up for election next month. Currently, Republicans are likely to win 211 seats, while Democrats are projected to secure 193 seats; 31 are toss-ups, according to Cook.

Key Background

While Roe v. Wade’s reversal has given Democrats a slight boost in their chances of holding onto control of the lower chamber, it’s unlikely to outweigh voters’ economic concerns and disapproval of the Biden Administration, putting the odds in Republicans’ favor. As of now, Democrats hold a slight 222-213 majority in the lower chamber, but Republicans are expected to win over about 30 seats on November 8, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast.

Big Number

71%. That’s the percentage of Republican voters who believe their party’s candidates have a clear plan for taking the country in the right direction, a stark contrast to the 59% of Democratic voters who said they have faith in theirs, according to the CNN/SSRS poll.

Further Reading

Democrats Are Outspending Republicans 2-To-1 To Hold Onto House (Forbes)

In Virginia’s 2nd District, Luria, Kiggans meet for a fiery first debate (The Washington Post)

Democrats’ Troubles in Nevada Are a Microcosm of Nationwide Headwinds (The New York Times)