USD/SEK rises amid strong US labor market data and threatens the 20-day SMA

• The USD/SEK rose towards the 10.470 level, threatening the 20-day SMA.
• US November Job reports: Unemployment Rate declined while Nonfarm Payrolls Average Hourly Earnings accelerated.
• All eyes are now on next week’s US November CPI and the Fed’s decisions.

In Friday’s trading session, the USD/SEK edged higher, primarily driven by strong labor market data from the US and rising American yields, resulting in a 0.80% uptick. Consequently, the USD/SEK now threatens the 20-day SMA of 10.470, a short-term solid resistance.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Unemployment rate for November declined to 3.7%. On the positive side, Nonfarm payrolls defied expectations, climbing to 199K against the foreseen 180K and the previous 150K figure. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings marked up 0.4% for November, overshooting the predicted 0.3% and distinctly surpassing the preceding 0.2% rate.

Its worth noticing that recent hints from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on potential further regulatory tightening have subdued dovish expectations, which pushed the pair downwards in the last sessions. In that sense, robust labor market data reinforce this caution as the bank seeks additional confirmation of the economy cooling down. Next week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures from November may provide markets with further guidance, but the highlight will be the Fed decision, where investors will seek clues on the bank’s next plans.

USD/SEK levels to watch

The technical indicators on the daily chart reflect a certain dominance of the selling momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in negative territory with a positive slope, suggesting a potential short-term momentum shift, although it is limited while under the 50-midline. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows flat green bars, suggesting a temporary pause in the selling pressure. 

Yet, the broader picture is tilted toward the bears. The pair are lingering below the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), representing that the bears have the command in the bigger picture. Despite the bearish breather, the selling pressure remains the prominent force, especially after the sellers pushed the price to lows since July last week. Therefore, the short-term technical outlook is inclined toward the sellers.

Support Levels: 10.365, 10.275, 10.180.
Resistance Levels: 10.471 (20-day SMA),10.503, 10.540.

USD/SEK daily chart