Upside ahead, seen at 0.68 in Q1 and 0.70 in Q4 – ANZ

AUS/USD traded in a wide range of 0.62-0.71 this year, with the pair above 0.66 for more than 50% of the year. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze Aussie’s outlook.

RBA is priced as the last to reduce rates, which may give the AUD a strong footing to start the year

The moves were largely driven by USD direction and developments in China. Looking ahead, we expect these two factors to dominate. In addition, given our view that RBA rate cuts will only begin at the end of 2024, it is likely that the carry advantage that the AUD will have against currencies where interest rates have eased aggressively will matter.

Furthermore, global risk sentiment is positive as we look into 2024, with global inflation moderating and global central banks easing. This sentiment is feeding into risk assets, and the AUD, being a high beta currency, stands to benefit.

We expect the AUD/USD to be at 0.68 in Q1 and 0.70 in Q4.