Humanoid robots in China
AFP via Getty Images
The Federal Communications Commission moved to block a new generation of Chinese robots from the U.S. market, adding “advanced robotic devices” such as humanoid robots and quadrupeds to its Covered List of gear deemed too risky to authorize for sale in the United States. The same order added connected power inverters, the networked devices that route electricity through solar arrays, batteries and data centers.
While not entirely unexpected — robots, like self-driving cars, are mobile sensor packages that could theoretically be used by foreign powers – FCC Chairman Brendan Carr framed the move as an economic one as well.
“Following President Trump’s leadership, the FCC will continue to do our part to secure America’s critical supply chains,” FCC Chairman Brendan Carr said in a statement, adding that the agency was “acting in lock step with our national security agencies.”
The practical effect is clear: new foreign-produced robots and inverters are now generally barred from receiving the FCC equipment authorization that nearly every electronic device needs before it can be imported, marketed or sold in the U.S. Without authorization, foreign robot makers have essentially no market access.
This is a massive shake-up in the humanoid robot space
It’s still very early days in the humanoid robot market, but the most recent brand share data we have shows that Chinese companies are shipping more than any other, with six of the top 10 manufacturers based in China, collectively responsible for 87% of all shipped humanoid robots.
Here’s the data, from January of this year:
- Agibot: 5,168
- Unitree: 4,200
- UBTech: 1,000
- Leju Robotics: 500
- Engine AI: 400
- Fourier Intelligence: 300
- Figure AI: 150
- Agility Robotics: 150
- Tesla: 150
- Others: 1,350
It’s important to remember, however, that multiple American companies are very close to shipping in volume, especially 1X with Neo, Figure with Figure 03 (and Figure 04 coming soon), Agility Robotics with Digit v4 in the market today and Digit v5 coming in December, and Apptronik with Apollo.
American humanoid robot companies.
John Koetsier
All of these are strong contenders, and there are many more. I’m currently tracking 180 companies in the U.S. that are working on 160 robots or components, like arms and hands. These companies have raised huge war chests totaling $150 billion.
Now these companies will have a protected market in which to grow. However, they will also be sheltered from competition to some degree, perhaps retarding the pace of their improvements.
What the order actually does
Essentially, this blocks the current market leaders – all Chinese robotics companies – from shipping to the most lucrative market on the planet.
It helps to be precise about the scope. The Covered List designation applies to new device models seeking authorization. It does not claw back robots or inverters that consumers already own, and it does not stop retailers from continuing to sell, import or market models that cleared the FCC’s equipment authorization process before Tuesday. In other words, this is a forward-looking gate on the U.S. market, not a recall. A company with an already-authorized quadruped can keep selling it. A company with a brand-new humanoid it hoped to launch this fall cannot … unless it wins an exemption.
Practically speaking, however, the best robots are tomorrow’s robots. Being limited to today’s models will kill any nascent market share foreign companies have in the United States.
The FCC order also carves out the federal government entirely: Washington can keep buying and using these devices.
The order allows for “Conditional Approval,” granted by the Department of War in the case of robots and the Department of Homeland Security in the case of inverters, for devices found not to pose an unacceptable risk. For any robotics firm hoping to keep U.S. distribution, that application process just became very important.
Hopefully, political contributions will not play a role in these decisions.
Why the FCC, and why now
The FCC did not reach this conclusion on its own. Under the Secure and Trusted Communications Networks Act, the commission can only update its Covered List at the direction of national security authorities.
The trigger here was a determination by a White House-convened interagency body that these foreign-made products, “regardless of the nationality of origin,” pose “unacceptable risks to the national security of the United States or the safety and security of United States persons.”
Two risk categories drive the finding.
The first is supply chain: a dependence on foreign-produced hardware that could be disrupted in ways that ripple through the U.S. economy and critical sectors. The second is cybersecurity.
On robots, the determination is striking in how physical it gets: “The networked capabilities of advanced robotic systems create extensive vulnerabilities and vectors for attacks that can manipulate the data and physical operation of the advanced robotic system.” Advanced robots, it continues, “collect data that could be leveraged by malign actors to surveil Americans, enhance the capabilities of foreign intelligence services, or to remotely commandeer the robots.”
In recent months the FCC has taken similar Covered List steps against Chinese-linked drones and their critical components, as well as consumer-grade routers.
Who gets hit?
Although the FCC’s fact sheet names no company, the market math points in an obvious direction: China.
China dominates the humanoid and quadruped categories, as you can see in the market share data above, and the clear leaders are Unitree, Agibot and UBTech.
Unitree launched commercially in Europe on July 22, becoming the first Chinese-made humanoid to reach Western commercial markets, and industry watchers had flagged a planned North American push in the weeks ahead.
The open questions: conditional approval
The FCC’s conditional approval path leaves some ambiguity.
How quickly will the Department of War and DHS process applications? What evidence clears the bar? A firm that can demonstrate secure, auditable supply chains and locked-down firmware might find a route back in.
For most of the American public, nothing changes today. For Chinese humanoid robot companies, this basically redraws the map.