U.S. soybean exports increased in value in the first two months of 2026 when compared to the first two months of 2025, which had been the worst year in nearly two decades.
ustradenumbers.com
There’s a glimmer of hope in the latest U.S. Census Bureau data for badly battered American soybean farmers, who endured the worst year in nearly two decades and an unprecedented five consecutive months without any sales to China.
The 27.09% increase through the first two months of 2026 is led by a 79.66% increase in shipments to China, according to my analysis of the latest data. In fact, while exports to China increased $1.09 billion over the same two months in 2025, exports to the rest of the world actually decreased, down $141.13 million.
U.S. soybean exports to China fell to just 18.70% of the total in 2025, one of only three times in the last 17 years where the percentage was below 50%.
ustradenumbers.com
For the first two months of 2026, the percentage of soybeans headed to China is back above 50% of total U.S. exports.
ustradenumbers.com
China is important because it has accounted for more than 50% of all U.S. soybean sales for 14 of the previous 17 years. The 2025 percentage fell to 18.70%, the second lowest percentage since 2003, just after China’s ascension to the World Trade Organization and easier access to global trade.
The first two months of the year are important because they are the tail end of the U.S. soybean season, which runs from September through March, more or less. It then shifts to Brazil.
Brazil is now the world’s largest producer and exporter. Over the last decade, its market share of global output has increased from just over 30% to better than 42% while the U.S. output has fallen from almost 34% to about 27%. In the season coming to an end, projections have Brazil accounting for almost 60% of global exports, with the United States accounting for 22%-23% of all exports, down from just under 40% a decade ago. Brazil exports about 70% of its soybeans to China.
It was eight years ago that U.S. soybeans became the poster child for Chinese retaliation after President Trump in his first term announced his broad-based trade war against the Asian nation. That year, 2018, as well as 2019 and 2025 are the only three years in the last 17 when China did not buy a majority of U.S. soybeans.
The market share for China topped 50% all four years when Joe Biden was president, even though he made no consequential changes to the Trump tariffs and even tightened some others. Those four years in office include the two years with the greatest value ever for imports both from China and the world. China accounted for 52.02% of the $35.45 billion total in 2022 and 54.16% of the $27.80 billion total in 2023.
Last year, with Trump back in office threatening, but never exacting, 145% tariffs, China not only completely shut off the spigot for soybean purchases for an unprecedented five months, it did so from June through October – meaning it crossed over into the U.S. soybean season. That made it particularly painful. The boycott ended with a paltry $21.83 million in exports in November. That was a 99.18% decrease from the previous November, when the total had been $2.67 billion.
So while the 27.09% increase is encouraging, it should be read as a rebound from a weak base, not as proof that the damage has passed. The deeper lesson for U.S. soybean farmers is that China still dominates the market math, Brazil has gained structural ground, and U.S. growers remain exposed to every shift in trade policy and every turn in Beijing’s buying habits. Until that relationship stabilizes, even a strong month or two will offer only limited comfort.