Trader Doubles Money on Big 6% Fed Rate Bet as Unwind Begins

(Bloomberg) — The trader who bet big in early February on the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate to 6% has begun unwinding the position, which has doubled in value since.

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On Tuesday, the person sold 50,000 put options on December Secured Overnight Financing Rate futures contracts, locking in close to $10 million of profits. That leaves around two thirds of the position still open, according to traders familiar with the wager.

The December SOFR futures contract plummeted last month as investors took strong economic data as a sign that the Fed would raise rates higher by midyear than previously expected, and be less likely to cut them in the second half of 2023. It now implies a policy rate of about 5.3% at the year’s end, up from around 4.3% on Feb. 1.

Preliminary CME open interest data published on Wednesday appeared consistent with the beginning of the unwind of the trade, which originally was built up over the first two weeks of February at levels between 6.25 and 11 ticks.

Tuesday’s sales were executed at levels between 14 and 15 ticks. A source familiar with the trade was unable to confirm the identity of the seller because the information is private.

Investors extended bearish bets on Wednesday, sending the yield on 10-year Treasuries to 4% for the first time since November. They also pushed out the expected timing for the peak in the Fed’s policy rate: It’s now seen topping out around 5.5% in September instead of July, according to overnight index swaps.

Read more: Treasury 10-Year Yield Hits 4% as Bets on Fed Rate Peak Increase

(Updates to include that seller’s identity could not be confirmed in fifth paragraph.)