Title Challenge Hits Speed Bump In Bochum

It was the 65th minute in the Ruhrderby between Bochum and Dortmund when a low cross by Raphaël Guerreiro was played into the box; Karim Adeyemi tried to reach the ball, turned, and was brought down by a Bochum defender. Referee Sascha Stegemann paused for a moment but decided: no penalty. And his decision was not overturned by the VAR team in Cologne.

As a result, Dortmund was held to a 1-1 draw by relegation-threatened Bochum, and BVB
VB
fans might one day look back at that particular moment should their club miss the golden opportunity to end Bayern Munich’s title run. But although this was a situation in which a penalty could have been given, perhaps should have been given, Stegemann’s call shouldn’t have made a difference.

After all, Dortmund had enough chances to easily win the game against Bochum on Friday night. To make matters worse, they should not even have conceded; Bochum’s goal by Anthony Losilla (5’), after all, was the product of Dortmund not chasing down the second ball, and Gregor Kobel, despite getting both hands on the shot, not doing enough to turn the ball around the post.

What came next was an excellent Dortmund response, with Adeyemi scoring a quick equalizer just two minutes later. What then followed, however, was almost typical of Dortmund this season.

The Black and Yellows wasted chance upon chance. When Stegemann finally blew the final whistle, the xG in the match was 0.65 to 2.87 in Dortmund’s favor. In other words, Dortmund had plenty of chances to correct their mistake in the first half, even without the penalty call.

We will not know until Sunday, when Bayern Munich hosts last-placed Hertha Berlin, whether Dortmund will lose first place. Should it happen, Dortmund will likely point at the referee team, point at the Adeyemi call, and the handball—a call that might have stood in a UEFA
EFA
competition—rather than looking at their own shortcomings.

And those shortcomings are obvious. As Stefan Bienkowski recently pointed out on the excellent Gegenpressing Podcast, Dortmund has been excellent on the road but has dropped points on the regular on the road. Dortmund has picked up 2.64 points per home game (the best in the Bundesliga), but they only average 1.5 points per away game (joint fourth in the Bundesliga).

Substack NotesStefan Bienkowski on Substack

In other words, Dortmund has lacked consistency this season. And it comes at the worst possible time, as Bayern Munich is in complete self-destruct mode. You want some recent examples? Dortmund threw away late leads against Werder Bremen in the Hinrunde and then recently against VfB Stuttgart.

The Black and Yellows create plenty of chances but don’t put them away. The club has perhaps the best goalkeeper in the league but has a defense that gives away easy goalscoring opportunities.

Of course, it isn’t over, Dortmund might still win the title. But that will only paper over the facts that, like Bayern, there are fundamental flaws with this team.

Manuel Veth is the host of the Bundesliga Gegenpressing Podcastand the Area Manager USA at Transfermarkt. He has also been published in the Guardian, Newsweek, Howler, Pro Soccer USA, and several other outlets. Follow him on Twitter: @ManuelVeth