The Complexity Of Finding A Proper Toronto Raptors Deadline Trade

The Toronto Raptors were broadly viewed as a no-nonsense playoff team going into the 2022-2023 campaign, and so far those expectations have fallen flat. The organization is currently 22-27, and sitting uncomfortably outside the play-in tournament.

While most of the roster has stayed intact, a combination of poor on-court chemistry and wonky half-court offense, has set the Raptors back.

Collectively, Toronto is taking the fourth-most long two-pointers in the NBA. Shots from beyond 16 feet, but inside the three-point line, make up for nine percent of the team’s offense. That wouldn’t have been a bad thing, necessarily, if they were able to convert those attempts at a decent rate. Instead, they’re second-to-last in the NBA in efficiency from that area, hitting just 34.9%, or 6.5 percentage points lower than league average.

It doesn’t help matters that the Raptors also sport the league’s third-to-last conversion rate from three-point range, hitting a remarkably unimpressive 33.4% on the year, as well as just 69.7% right near the rim, ranking 17th in the league.

In short, the Raptors really aren’t efficient from anywhere, despite having a fairly solid talent base of Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. All of them are averaging over 15 points per game, but not a single one is hitting over 48% from the field, or over 37% from long range.

So, what to do?

A trade would seem fairly obvious as a the deadline looms, but what type of player should the Raptors target?

While irony runs deep here, Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan – a former Raptor – is the exact archetype the club currently needs. DeRozan is efficient from virtually everywhere inside the arc, one of the best post players in the NBA, and he draws fouls like nobody’s business.

DeRozan would immediately be the second-best ballhandler on the team, can carry the offensive burden for long stretches, and would function as a closer late in games, elements the Raptors are sorely in need of this season.

Of course, getting DeRozan on board would cost a pretty penny, and the Bulls would unquestionably ask for Anunoby in return, which is where issues arise. The 25-year-old is rumored to fetch an absolute haul on the trade market, with some even bringing up the Rudy Gobert package that Minnesota sent to Utah as a blueprint.

DeRozan’s value, while substantial in its own right, falls flat on those expectations.

VanVleet for DeRozan also doesn’t make a lot of sense given that the Raptors would be left with very little perimeter shooting and ballhandling, two areas they can’t afford to give up. DeRozan, for all he brings to the table, isn’t a three-point shooter, and without VanVleet, he’d be overtasked as the primary play initiator.

Besides, the All-Star point guard can opt out this summer, foregoing $22.8 million for a larger payday. The Bulls aren’t going to give up DeRozan for a possible rental.

Siakam is almost assuredly off-limits in any such trade. He’s younger, and overall better, than DeRozan. That would likely be a non-starter for Team President Masai Ujiri, unless the Bulls were to sweeten the pot, which they don’t really have the assets to do anyway.

That leaves Barnes and Trent Jr, and you could make a case that neither player makes sense. Trent Jr simply doesn’t have enough value to fetch DeRozan, and the Raptors would have to include a small treasure chest of add-ons to make it worthwhile, which seems unlikely they’d be willing to do. Trent Jr’s value is further problematic by the fact that he can opt out of his deal this summer, and become an unrestricted free agent. There’s just no way the Bulls sacrifice DeRozan for what could be a half-year rental.

As for Barnes, the Raptors are keenly aware of his status as last year’s Rookie Of the Year, and the potential he has. While he currently isn’t close to being the player that DeRozan is, the future is yet unwritten, and that allure likely makes it a tough sell for the Raptors.

Overall, the Raptors are in a tough spot trade wise. You could substitute DeRozan’s name for other established All-Stars, who aren’t on the superstar level, and the logic applied to Toronto’s five primary players would be the same. No-go on Anunoby, Siakam and Barnes, VanVleet being too important, and Trent Jr not having enough value. Rinse, repeat.

DeRozan remains the archetype they should be interested in, assuming of course they wish to remain competitive. If not, that changes the conversation entirely, and would allow them to explore deals for VanVleet, Siakam, and even Anunoby, as all three would fetch significant returns.

The Raptors remain one of the most intriguing teams to follow before the February 9th NBA Trade Deadline.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.