‘The Batman’ Begins With A Super $22 Million In Preview Grosses

As is normal for these kind of releases, Warner Bros. is lumping the Tuesday IMAX previews (allegedly around $2 million) and the Wednesday previews into the Thursday advance-night screening grosses. And the $21.6 million sum will be included as part of the Friday total. Again, this is business as usual, even if WB tried to pretend that some of the Thursday preview showings of Man of Steel (the ones you had to go to Wal-Mart to procure) didn’t count toward the weekend total. Sorry, they count, so Man Of Steel’s opening weekend was not $116 million but $128 million in June of 2013. Anyway, $21.5 million for Thursday is well above the sweet spot for a film that wishes to be Warner Bros.’ first $100 million opening weekend since It which earned $123 million over its Fri-Sun debut in September 2017.

Offhand, The Dark Knight broke records in July 2008 with $18 million in midnight grosses toward an eventual $158 million opening weekend. The Dark Knight Rises earned $30.5 million in July 2012 for an eventual $160 million launch, which remains the biggest 2-D opening ever. Batman v Superman earned $27.7 million on Thursday toward a $166 million launch six years ago while Justice League earned $13 million toward a $93 million launch in November 2017. Of note, Suicide Squad earned $25 million on Thursday toward a $133 million debut while Joker earned $13.3 million toward a $96 million debut weekend in 2019. Both Batman and Batman Returns earned $2 million in their respective preview grosses in 1989 and 1992 before breaking the opening weekend record with $43 million and $47 million respectively. Batman Forever would break the record yet again in 1995 with $53 million.

Suicide Squad, Dawn of Justice and Man of Steel earned around over/under 18% of their weekend totals on Thursday. Justice League, Shazam! ($5.9 million/$59 million in 2019) and Wonder Woman ($11 million/$103.5 million in June 2017) earned closer to a Marvel-like 10-11%. Joker earned 14% of its take on Thursday, which is closer to the later, slightly more frontloaded MCU flicks like Age of Ultron or Captain Marvel. Aquaman earned $9 million in Thursday previews, with an additional $4.7 million in sneak preview grosses, for an eventual $72 million Fri-Sun weekend before it used Christmas to leg out to an outrageous $335 million domestic total. So, just running the math, we’re probably looking at an opening weekend between $120 million and $166 million (like Venom 2 which earned $90 million after an $11.6 million Thursday), with the happy medium being around $135 million.

I guess we could see frontloading closer to The Dark Knight Rises or Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260 million/$50 million), but that still would give Warner Bros.’ $180 million comic book flick a $113 million opening. The three-hour runtime and “too grimdark for kids” sentiment could be a hindrance (just as the rave reviews assuring parents that How to Train Your Dragon 2 would make their kids cry probably didn’t help the film’s opening weekend) during the initial sprint. However, it’s not like similar concerns about The Dark Knight (which ran a then-super long 2.5 hours) prevented a sky-high debut in 2008. The Robert Pattinson/Zoe Kravitz flick still has generally rave reviews (85% fresh and 7.7/10 on Rotten Tomatoes), strong social media buzz and a near-empty marketplace in their favor. Looks like Matt Reeves’ The Batman is off to a strong beginning.