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Wall Street projects about 420,000 deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2022, which would bring Tesla’s full-year total to more than 1.3 million cars.
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Tesla
investors had a rocky 2022. They hope to start out 2023 with a bang.
Tesla
(ticker: TSLA) is due to report quarterly deliveries Monday. Tesla typically reports delivery and production figures on the second day of a new quarter.
Wall Street is projecting just under 420,000 units for the quarter, according to 24 large brokers.
FactSet
,
a financial data company, lists more than 40 analysts that cover Tesla stock. The consensus of those analysts is closer to 425,000 units.
Delivery estimates have been coming down in the past few weeks. Fourth-quarter estimates peaked at about 450,000 units in the summer. Coming into December, the fourth-quarter consensus estimate was roughly 430,000 units, according to FactSet.
A number around 420,000 should be good enough for investors. When delivery results top expectations, Tesla shares typically perform well in the space between delivery results and when full quarterly results are reported a few weeks later.
The reverse can be true, too. In the third quarter, Wall Street projected about 358,000 units and Tesla delivered 343,830 vehicles. The stock dropped about 16% between delivery results and quarterly earnings, reported on Oct. 19. The
S&P 500
rose roughly 3% over the same time. The
Nasdaq Composite
rose about 1%.
Tesla stock is coming into the new year after suffering its worst annual decline ever. Shares dropped roughly 65% in 2022 and now trade for 22 times estimated 2023 earnings of about $5.60 a share. Earnings in 2023 are expected to grow roughly 40% from about $4 a share in 2022.
Analysts expect Tesla deliveries to grow about 40% in 2023, hitting 1.8 million to 1.9 million cars, up from roughly 1.3 million in 2022.
Meeting 2023 delivery estimates will go a long way to convincing investors the 2023 earnings estimate is sound and that Tesla stock might have sold off a little too much this past year.
It’s way too early to tell how 2023 will turn out for Tesla stock. The first inkling about the new year is coming very soon.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-deliveries-what-to-expect-51672591546?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo