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Wall Street projects about 420,000 deliveries for the fourth quarter of 2022, which would bring Tesla’s full-year total to more than 1.3 million cars.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Tesla
stock had a rocky 2022, and
Tesla
investors hoped that fourth-quarter EV deliveries would help get 2023 started with a bang. It looks like they’ll be disappointed.
On Monday, Tesla (ticker: TSLA) reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 405,278. It’s a record result, but it missed Wall Street expectations.
Wall Street was projecting just under 420,000 units for the quarter, according to 24 large brokers. FactSet, a financial data company, lists more than 40 analysts that cover Tesla stock. The consensus of those analysts is closer to 425,000 units.
Delivery estimates have been coming down in the past few weeks. Fourth-quarter estimates peaked at about 450,000 units in the summer. Coming into December, the fourth-quarter consensus estimate was roughly 430,000 units, according to FactSet.
The disappointment is bad news for a stock that’s already under tons of pressure. When deliveries top expectations, Tesla shares typically perform well in the space between delivery results and when full quarterly results are reported a few weeks later. The reverse can be true, too. In the third quarter, Wall Street projected about 358,000 units and Tesla delivered 343,830 vehicles and the stock dropped about 16% between delivery results and quarterly earnings, reported on Oct. 19. The
S&P 500
rose roughly 3% over the same time., while the
Nasdaq Composite
rose about 1%.
Tesla stock is coming into the new year after suffering its worst annual decline ever. Shares dropped roughly 65% in 2022 and now trade for 22 times estimated 2023 earnings of about $5.60 a share. Earnings in 2023 are expected to grow roughly 40% from about $4 a share in 2022.
Analysts expect Tesla deliveries to grow about 40% in 2023, hitting 1.8 million to 1.9 million cars, up from roughly 1.3 million in 2022.
Tesla grew volumes about 40% in 2022, with the company delivering 1,313,851 vehicles, up from 935,950 delivered in 2021. Tesla produced 1,369,611 in 2022, about 56,000 more than it delivered.
Meeting 2023 delivery estimates will go a long way to convincing investors the 2023 earnings estimate is sound and that Tesla stock might have sold off a little too much this past year.
It’s way too early to tell how 2023 will turn out for Tesla stock. But it it doesn’t look as if the new year is starting off the way investors had hoped.
Write to Al Root at [email protected]
Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-deliveries-51672591546?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo