Stock slides as its 2023 production forecast misses the mark

Rivian (RIVN) shares are sliding after the EV maker reported mixed Q4 results and a production forecast that missed the mark. The company said its new production forecast for 2023 will be 50,000 vehicles, below analyst estimates of around 63,000 units. Rivian is also projecting a 2023 adjusted EBITDA loss of $4.3 billion, slightly more than estimates of $4.19 billion.

From a deliveries standpoint, the company already reported that for the quarter it produced 10,020 vehicles and delivered 8,054. For the year, Rivian produced 24,337, narrowly missing its 2022 forecast for 25,000 units, which was a positive development for the company given its early production ramp difficulties and supply chain hiccups. It delivered 20,332 units for the year.

Rivian said production is still being hampered by supply chain and parts issues. “Supply chain continues to be the main limiting factor of our production; during the quarter we encountered multiple days of lost production due to supplier shortages. We expect supply chain challenges to persist into 2023 but with better predictability relative to what was experienced in 2022,” Rivian said in its shareholder letter.

For Q4, Rivian reported the following top and bottom line figures:

Rivian reported a $1.72 billion net loss for the quarter, slightly better than estimates, and for 2022 Rivian reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.22 billion, below its forecast of $5.45 billion for the year.

At the end of the third quarter Rivian announced it had 114K preorders for its R1T and R1S vehicles, though in a surprise the company said it would no longer be issuing pre-order data going forward.

A Rivian sports-utility vehicle is seen on display in Austin, Texas, Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2023. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

A Rivian sports-utility vehicle is seen on display in Austin, Texas, Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2023. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

Any kind of guidance on pre-orders is still important, however. “With this macro backdrop and delivery delays, a looming question on the Street is if consumers are canceling orders due to either the softer macro backdrop or simply, Rivian’s current production output taking so much time and if there is a tangible churn rate in this area,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives noted.

Rivian did offer its reservation holders some positive news, with the company projecting that it Max Pack battery variants will be available for both the R1T pickup and R1S SUV starting in the fall of 2023. The Max Pack increases the range of the R1T to 400 miles (from 350 in the Large Pack) and the R1S to 390 miles (compared to 340 for the Large Pack).

In terms of cash reserves, Rivian reported it had cash on hand and reserves of $12.01 billion, compared to $13.3 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of last quarter. Rivian expects capital expenditures to reach $2 billion in 2023, which includes investments in its upcoming Georgia facility.

Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on Twitter and on Instagram.

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