Stock Market Gains After Mixed Manufacturing Reports, War In Ukraine Escalates

The stock market gained on Monday after mixed manufacturing data for September. OPEC+ may cut oil production as the war in Ukraine showed no signs of easing. Oil giants Chevron (CVX) and Exxon-Mobil (XOM) led gains while Tesla (TSLA) led decliners among blue chips.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.1%, leading major indexes. The Nasdaq composite traded 1.7% higher and the S&P 500 gained 1.8%. The small-cap Russell 2000 index outperformed the major indexes, rising 2.4%.

Volume rose on the Nasdaq and the NYSE vs. the same time on Friday.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 0.23% to 3.60%.

Stock Market Gains As OPEC+ Debates Cuts

U.S. crude oil rose nearly 4% to $82.62 per barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, collectively known as OPEC+, is set this week to consider its most drastic reductions since the pandemic started. Prices have fallen in recent weeks amid concerns about a slowing global economy.

The S&P Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) shot up 4.8%, the best-performing sector of the 11 S&P sectors.

The PMI Manufacturing Index rose to 52, topping Econoday consensus forecasts of 51.8. On the flip side, the closely-watched ISM Manufacturing Index missed expectations, reporting a 50.9 reading vs. 52.0 consensus.

“Activity in the manufacturing and construction sectors are surprising to the downside,” said Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank. “Activity indicators point to an ongoing downshift in economic activity that will show up in jobs data over time. The Fed will stay on the inflation-fighting warpath until they see they labor market soften and wage growth slow.”

European markets gained. The London FTSE 100 rose 0.2%, while the German DAX gained 0.7% and the French CAC 40 traded 0.5% higher.

England announced a major U-turn overnight, ditching a plan to cut the 45% top-income tax rate, after instability in U.K. markets forced the Bank of England to intervene. Local politics are also powering the reversal, fueled by a large-scale rebellion of  Conservative Party lawmakers.

The British pound strengthened on Monday to 1.129 against the U.S. dollar.

Ukraine Escalation Lifts Defense Stocks

Ukrainian forces broke through Russian lines and made new advances in the southern Kherson region, even as the rapid offensive in the eastern part of the country deepens, according to The Wall Street Journal. Russia unilaterally annexed four breakaway regions of Ukraine last week and is planning to call up 300,000 new troops.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would defend all Ukrainians in those territories, while President Joe Biden called the annexations “fraudulent.”

A basket of U.S. defense stocks gained on the war’s escalation, including L3 Harris (LHX), Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC).

L3 Harris was also boosted by a company announcement that it agreed to buy a military-communications business from satellite specialist Viasat (VSAT) for $1.96 billion. VSAT stock jumped 33% on the news Monday.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.1%, the Hang Seng lost 0.8% and the Shanghai index fell 0.6%.

Elsewhere, former leftist president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the first round on Sunday in Brazil’s presidential elections. The victory means Lula will face right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil’s final elections at the end of the month. Bolsonaro was second in Sunday’s election but topped local polls by clinching 43.4% of the vote.

IBD 50, Oil Stocks Boost U.S. Stock Market

The Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) traded up 2.5%, led by energy stocks Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Devon Energy (DVN), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Hess (HES).

Devon Energy is forming a cup with handle with a buy point of 75.37.

Tesla reported record Q3 deliveries on Oct. 2 but missed expectations, as China demand fears grow. Tesla stock plunged 8% Monday morning.

BYD (BYDDF) reported booming September sales, topping 200,000 for the first time. Q3 deliveries surged above 500,000. The EV and battery giant has added several new models, including a Tesla Model 3 rival. It’s also expanding into several markets, including Europe.

Tesla stock is off 2022 lows but has hit key resistance amid a bear market. BYD stock gained 1.7%.

Tech titans Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), and online retailer Amazon.com (AMZN) were higher after today’s stock market open. Chevron was one of the Dow’s top performers, rising nearly 5% as U.S. oil prices jumped. Both Chevron and Exxon are consolidating and trying to form bases.

Follow Michael Molinski on Twitter @IMmolinski

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