South Florida Under Tropical Storm Watches As Threat Of ‘Considerable’ Flooding Grows

Topline

Large portions of the south and central Florida coastline were placed under tropical storm watches Thursday afternoon ahead of what’s likely to be the first named storm of the 2022 season, which forecasters warn could lead to significant flooding, especially in urban areas.

Key Facts

The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories Thursday afternoon on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which is located near the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Alex on Friday, before making landfall on Saturday around Fort Myers as a weak tropical storm in terms of wind speed.

The main threat in Florida will be heavy rainfall across southern portions of the state on Friday and Saturday, which will lead to widespread rainfall totals of 4-8 inches but that could rise to as much as a foot in areas, according to the National Hurricane Center, possibly causing “considerable flash and urban flooding.”

Western parts of Cuba are already getting battered in rainfall, which could lead to isolated totals of up to 14 inches, leading to “life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.”

A tropical storm watch is in effect on the western coast of the Florida peninsula located south of the middle of Longboat Key and Florida’s Atlantic coast south of the Volusia/Brevard County line, as well as the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee and Florida Bay.

The watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.

Crucial Quote

“The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very uncertain,” the National Hurricane Center said in a forecast discussion, noting the storm’s peak winds could be located well away from the center.

Key Background

The system is composed of the remnants of Hurricane Agatha, which slammed into Mexico’s Pacific coast on Monday as a Category 2 storm. Wednesday marked the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters expect will be extremely active. A La Nina climate pattern causing above-average sea surface temperatures and reduced storm-suppressing wind shear across the Atlantic basin are the main factors contributing to the high seasonal predictions.

What To Watch For

The storm could strengthen as it moves away from Florida into the Atlantic, but it is not expected to reach hurricane strength in the next five days. It doesn’t appear any states besides Florida will experience significant impacts.

Further Reading

Florida Braces For Tropical Threat On Day 1 Of Hurricane Season (Forbes)

Hurricane Researchers Issue Their Most Active Preseason Forecast Ever (Forbes)